POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL WATER USE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.1

ABSTRACT: Climate change has the potential to have dramatic effects on the agricultural sector nationally and internationally as documented in many research papers. This paper reports on research that was focused on a specific crop growing area to demonstrate how farm managers might respond to climate-induced yield changes and the implications of these responses for agricultural water use. The Hadley model was used to generate climate scenarios for important agricultural areas of Georgia in 2030 and 2090. Linked crop response models indicated generally positive yield changes, as increased temperatures were associated with increased precipitation and CO2. Using a farm management model, differences in climate-induced yield impacts among crops led to changes in crop mix and associated water use; non-irrigated cropland received greater benefit since irrigated land was already receiving adequate moisture. Model results suggest that farm managers will increase cropping intensity by decreasing fallowing and increasing double cropping; corn acreage decreased dramatically, peanuts decreased moderately and cotton and winter wheat increased. Water use on currently irrigated cropland fell. The potential for increased water use through conversion of agriculturally important, but currently non-irrigated, growing areas is substantial.     

The combined effects of on-road and simulator training with feedback on older drivers' on-road performance: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial

Objective: A number of training programs that seek to improve driving performance among older drivers are available accompanied by a growing interest in their effectiveness. The purpose of the present investigation was to examine the combined effect of (1) basic in-class training (BT); (2) on-road training with individualized feedback (OR); and (3) training on a driving simulator (S).

Methods: Using a randomized controlled trial study design, 78 older drivers were randomly assigned to one of 3 groups (BT, BT + OR, or BT + OR + S). All participants completed a pre- and postintervention on-road driving evaluation on a standardized route. The driving evaluations were recorded using video and Global Positioning System (GPS) equipment and were scored by a blind assessor.

Results: The results indicated a significant reduction of approximately 30% in overall number of driving errors/omissions among participants in the BT + OR and the BT + OR + S groups in comparison to participants in the BT group.

Conclusions: This study adds to the mounting evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of individualized driver training in improving safe driving among older adults.     

Adapting to climate change: the role of organisational personalities in natural resource management

Regional Environmental Change - Preparing for climate change represents a significant challenge to environmental managers and is influenced by their ability to access and use the latest...     

A Spatial Analysis of the Economic and Ecological Efficacy of Land Retirement

This paper uses a cellular automata simulation model of a hypothetical landscape to investigate the role of location as it relates to the efficacy of land retirement in achieving two environmental goals: hydrological improvement and habitat improvement. Statistical analysis of simulation results is used to show how absolute and relative location relate to achievement of these objectives. Linear and nonlinear compromise programming frameworks then combine these two environmental objectives and a cost minimization objective into a measure that allows decision-makers to rank the desirability of different retirement strategies. These frameworks are explored to determine what each implies about the tradeoffs that must be made among objectives and among the spatial land parcel characteristics that contribute to those objectives.     

Trends of brominated diphenyl ethers in fresh and archived Great Lakes fish (1979-2005)

While few environmental measurements of brominated diphenyl ethers (BDEs) were completed prior to the mid-1990s, analysis of appropriately archived samples might enable the determination of contaminant trends back to the introduction of these chemicals. In this paper, we first investigate the stability of BDEs in archived frozen and extracted fish samples, and then characterize trends of these chemicals in rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in each of the Great Lakes between 1979 and 2005. We focus on the four most common congeners (BDE-47, 100, 99 and 153) and use a change-point analysis to detect shifts in trends. Analyses of archived fish samples yielded precise BDE concentration measurements with only small losses (0.8% per year in frozen fish tissues, 2.2% per year in refrigerated extracts). Trends in fish from all Great Lakes showed large increases in BDE concentrations that started in the early to mid-1980s with fairly consistent doubling times (generally 2-4 years except in Lake Erie smelt where levels increased very slowly), though concentrations and trends show differences by congener, fish species and lake. The most recent data show that accumulation rates are slowing, and concentrations of penta- and hexa-congeners in trout from Lakes Ontario and Michigan and smelt from Lake Ontario started to decrease in the mid-1990s. Trends in smelt and trout are evolving somewhat differently, and trout concentrations in the five lakes are now ranked as Michigan>Superior=Ontario>Huron=Erie, and smelt concentrations as Michigan>Ontario>Huron>Superior>Erie. The analysis of properly archived samples permits the reconstruction of historical trends, congener distributions, biomagnification and other information that can aid the understanding and management of these contaminants.     

A conceptual model and empirical analysis of children's acquisition of spatial knowledge

How adults and children come to understand, represent and behave within their spatial environment are topics of great interest to geographers, psychologists, environmental planners and laypeople. Considerable research and theory has been published on these and related topics. In this paper, we will review some of what is known and theorized about spatial cognition and then consider elements of our research program on the acquisition of spatial knowledge. We focus on two intimately related topics. The first is the development of a conceptual model of the knowledge structures and processes associated with acquiring, representing and accessing knowledge of a given environment. The conceptual model forms the basis for a formal computational process model intended as a simulation of actual knowledge and performance in way finding tasks. The second emphasis is an in-depth case study of the acquisition of spatial knowledge. The case study focuses on a single child acquiring knowledge of a lengthy route through an unfamiliar suburban neighborhood. It is presented as an empirical test of certain assumptions embodied within the conceptual model.Before introducing the conceptual model and the case study, we first review the state of current theory and data on spatial cognition and identify four central issues confronting researchers in this field. This review provides a necessary context for describing and evaluating our program of research. The second section of this paper discusses elements of the conceptual model and its relationship to other formal computational models. The third section considers specific hypotheses about the acquisition and representation of spatial knowledge and tests of these hypotheses from the single in-depth case study. The final discussion section of this paper is a reconsideration of the four issues raised in the first section and necessary and proposed extensions of the current research.     

Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

Estimation of selected physicochemical properties for methylated naphthalene compounds

Liquid aqueous solubility (S(w,L)), octanol/water partition coefficients (K(ow)), liquid vapor pressure (P(v,L)), and Henry's law constants (H(c)) were estimated for 20 methylated naphthalenes ranging from monomethyl to tetramethylnaphthalenes. Chromatographic methods were used for the estimation. Chromatographic retention measurements were conducted for 11 reference compounds and regressions were fit between the retention indices and the physicochemical properties. HPLC octadecylsilyl column with acetonitrile/water eluent was used for the estimation of S(w,L) and K(ow). Two GC columns, HP5-MS and a more hydrophobic HP-1, were tested for the estimation of P(v,L). Measured retention indices for the methylated naphthalenes were entered to the regression equations to calculate the physicochemical properties for these compounds. Literature values, where available, were used to validate the calculated values. The method accurately estimated the physicochemical properties. Estimated S(w,L) and P(v,L) decreased with the number of methyl groups. K(ow) increased with the number of methyl groups. There was no obvious relation between H(c) and the number of methyl groups. Log S(w,L) ranged from 0.885 for 1,2,5,6-tetramethylnaphthalene to 2.269 for 1-methylnaphthalene (mmol/m(3)). Log K(ow) varied from 3.89 for 1-methylnaphthalene to 4.95 for 1,2,5,6-tetramethylnaphthalene. Log P(v,L) ranged from -0.983 for 1,2,5,6-tetramethylnaphthalene to 0.789 for 2-methylnaphthalene (Pa). Log H(c) varied from 1.03 for 1,4,5-trimethylnaphthalene to 1.73 for 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene (Pa m(3)/mol). There were no apparent effects of GC column hydrophobicity on the accuracy of the results. Estimation of S(w,L) and K(ow) based on GC retention indices was not as accurate as with HPLC. Comparison of the estimated values with values predicted by EPIWIN indicated that EPIWIN is useful in giving order-of-magnitude prediction of physicochemical properties.     

A technique for collection of particulate organic matter in situ

A technique is described for concentrating and collecting particulate organic matter from water with minimal disturbance. This involves exposing in situ the surface of a Millipore^® filter monitor mounted on a simple vacuum flask assembly.